The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) has been an ongoing trade deal that was finally agreed upon by all the 12 countries. The secret deal connects 12 countries of US, Brunei, Chile, Australia, Singapore, Japan, Mexico, Vietnam, New Zealand, Canada, […]
Yuan’s inclusion in IMF currency basket is a relief to China’s economy. China is on its transition path from a more state governed economy to a more market oriented one. The inclusion also marks the entry of the first emerging market in a group of developed ones.
In an interview with CNBC, Mohamed El Erian’s thoughts seemed to align with Bill Gross’s statements. “I would have hiked earlier and I would have gotten off zero earlier, but it’s easier to say with hindsight,” El-Erian told CNBC. “We know that there was a moment when domestic data was relatively strong and international data was okay. Now, the international data is really scary, and therefore the Fed has lost the opportunity when it had some alignment.”
For long, geopolitics seemed to have started playing an important role in deciding the destiny of global financial markets. 2015 has seen contrasting developments, where nearly every market affected the other, irrespective of how much contribution one made to the other’s GDP. The reason could be that globally financial markets remain highly interconnected and if not through investments then through trade, the influence remained inevitable. This article highlights four important economies that could make a difference to global financial markets.
The changing relations of China and Russia are also not based purely through partnerships but also through their support in each another’s projects. Russia has been supporting China’s ambitious infrastructural projects like the Silk Road project and the Eurasian integration project, which connects China with Europe via Russia.
While the nations involved remain very optimistic about getting co-operation especially during meetings, it might not be as simple and easy as it seems. While emerging markets have their own tale to tell and could be struggling economically, things might appear difficult in the long run.
The US dollar has been on the rise every day setting high records. With the upward pressure on dollar, stronger dollar could tighten financial conditions across the growth. Further the rising dollar could be offsetting the benefit of low cost oil. Over the past six months, the trade-weighted dollar has risen 25% and faster than anytime the last 40 years. US dollar is a global unit of account in debt contracts and that could be a cause of slow down in the rest of the world. Not only that, if the dollar continues to increase, inflation and US economic could weaken.
As emerging markets enter turmoil, questions regarding BRICS remain unanswered. China was known for being the second largest economy that could drive the asian markets towards infrastructural growth and development. But this year some troubling news from mostly all the emerging markets with Brazil’s debt being reduced to “junk” status. What started, as a pompous affair of five nations coming together in support of one another’s infrastructural needs, now appears to be more of a promotional event.
With the talks of a New Development Bank in China, BRICS has managed to raise some questions. Will the association of emerging markets manage to create stir in the the global economy or will it be another alliance of economies that just have meetings over nothing. Amidst many criticisms, economies of Brazil and Russia can pose more complication than contribution to the group. But it is definitely too early to completely write off BRICS.