Eight years of the financial turmoil has given a reason for many debates, research, arguments, discussions and even research work to many. To many nothing has really changed, in fact to them, we might be looking at something more serious in 2016. The question that is important is whether there is any truth to the occurrence of second financial crisis or are we just in denial? This article had been previously published in 2014.
For long, geopolitics seemed to have started playing an important role in deciding the destiny of global financial markets. 2015 has seen contrasting developments, where nearly every market affected the other, irrespective of how much contribution one made to the other’s GDP. The reason could be that globally financial markets remain highly interconnected and if not through investments then through trade, the influence remained inevitable. This article highlights four important economies that could make a difference to global financial markets.
The creation of AIIB, China has opened its closed doors to many countries. In committing to contribute up to 50% of the AIIB capital, it will be taking the lead in assisting the development of other Asian countries. There will be a lot of rising challenges in the development of the bank but this could be a great opportunity for China to prove itself as a global leader.
The US dollar has been on the rise every day setting high records. With the upward pressure on dollar, stronger dollar could tighten financial conditions across the growth. Further the rising dollar could be offsetting the benefit of low cost oil. Over the past six months, the trade-weighted dollar has risen 25% and faster than anytime the last 40 years. US dollar is a global unit of account in debt contracts and that could be a cause of slow down in the rest of the world. Not only that, if the dollar continues to increase, inflation and US economic could weaken.
Six years of the financial turmoil has given a reason for many debates, research, arguments, discussions and even research work to many. To many nothing has really changed, in fact to them, we might be looking at something more serious in 2015. The question that is important is whether there is any truth to the occurrence of second financial crisis or are we just in denial?
2015 will be a year that will test many emerging economies like Brazil, Russia and China. Advanced countries will take measures to revive past growths and try to remain in the race. Low oil prices will lower inflation in many economies but will raise concerns in many others.
On October 30, 2014 Paul Krugman wrote in New York Times ” Japan used to be a cautionary tale, but the rest of us have messed up so badly that it almost looks like a role model instead.” Japan’s economy has been in coma for the past 20 years and its revival has been the focus of many debates and case studies (and many criticisms). With promising reforms like Big Bang and Abenomics, it is important to check whether Japan has overcome some hurdles or whether the reforms proved to be a complete failure.