Data & financial journalist covering global economics and policy
The U.S. trade deficit narrowed dramatically in October 2025, falling to $29.4 billion, the smallest monthly gap since May 2009, according to new data from the U.S. Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis. That represents a 39% drop from a revised $48.1 billion deficit in September.
IMF projections show U.S. government debt climbing faster than most G7 peers, surpassing the group’s average in 2025 and reaching about 143% of GDP by 2030—second only to Japan.
Persistently high inflation makes this reduction a tricky one. The interest rate cut is the first in Trump’s second term as well as the first in 2025.
The August inflation data overlaps with President Trump’s latest round of tariffs on major U.S. trading partners. But while the direct impact is up for debate, beef’s surge suggests tariffs may already be filtering into consumer prices.