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Eight years of the financial turmoil has given a reason for many debates, research, arguments, discussions and even research work to many. To many nothing has really changed, in fact to them, we might be looking at something more serious in 2016. The question that is important is whether there is any truth to the occurrence of second financial crisis or are we just in denial? This article had been previously published in 2014.
Yuan’s inclusion in IMF currency basket is a relief to China’s economy. China is on its transition path from a more state governed economy to a more market oriented one. The inclusion also marks the entry of the first emerging market in a group of developed ones.
In an interview with CNBC, Mohamed El Erian’s thoughts seemed to align with Bill Gross’s statements. “I would have hiked earlier and I would have gotten off zero earlier, but it’s easier to say with hindsight,” El-Erian told CNBC. “We know that there was a moment when domestic data was relatively strong and international data was okay. Now, the international data is really scary, and therefore the Fed has lost the opportunity when it had some alignment.”
For long, geopolitics seemed to have started playing an important role in deciding the destiny of global financial markets. 2015 has seen contrasting developments, where nearly every market affected the other, irrespective of how much contribution one made to the other’s GDP. The reason could be that globally financial markets remain highly interconnected and if not through investments then through trade, the influence remained inevitable. This article highlights four important economies that could make a difference to global financial markets.
By devaluing its own currency, China has tried to address its issues due to financial distress. Not many have taken this surprise move by China in good spirits. While China might be trying to fix its own domestic growth, it could trigger currency wars amongst nations that are trying to compete with each other in international trade.
The changing relations of China and Russia are also not based purely through partnerships but also through their support in each another’s projects. Russia has been supporting China’s ambitious infrastructural projects like the Silk Road project and the Eurasian integration project, which connects China with Europe via Russia.
While the nations involved remain very optimistic about getting co-operation especially during meetings, it might not be as simple and easy as it seems. While emerging markets have their own tale to tell and could be struggling economically, things might appear difficult in the long run.
China’s leaders now aim to transform China into one of the world’s leading industrial powers by 2045 and for this, a new business model will be designed. By doing this, it aims to reduce and eventually overcome the country’s dependence on cheap manufacturing and instead focus on advanced industrial goods for markets. Not only this, China has for long been building knowledge-based economy, driven purely by innovation and domestic consumption. But its real estate sector still consists of ghost towns and dozens of unleased commercial spaces.
The creation of AIIB, China has opened its closed doors to many countries. In committing to contribute up to 50% of the AIIB capital, it will be taking the lead in assisting the development of other Asian countries. There will be a lot of rising challenges in the development of the bank but this could be a great opportunity for China to prove itself as a global leader.
The US dollar has been on the rise every day setting high records. With the upward pressure on dollar, stronger dollar could tighten financial conditions across the growth. Further the rising dollar could be offsetting the benefit of low cost oil. Over the past six months, the trade-weighted dollar has risen 25% and faster than anytime the last 40 years. US dollar is a global unit of account in debt contracts and that could be a cause of slow down in the rest of the world. Not only that, if the dollar continues to increase, inflation and US economic could weaken.
State-owned banks have long dominated banking in China but China wants to do things differently now. The Chinese government wants improve its financial sector by creating more confidence and responsiveness towards private customers. China has lately seen a lot of changes in its banking system, which could see some big changes in Chinese banking sector in 2015.
As emerging markets enter turmoil, questions regarding BRICS remain unanswered. China was known for being the second largest economy that could drive the asian markets towards infrastructural growth and development. But this year some troubling news from mostly all the emerging markets with Brazil’s debt being reduced to “junk” status. What started, as a pompous affair of five nations coming together in support of one another’s infrastructural needs, now appears to be more of a promotional event.
Six years of the financial turmoil has given a reason for many debates, research, arguments, discussions and even research work to many. To many nothing has really changed, in fact to them, we might be looking at something more serious in 2015. The question that is important is whether there is any truth to the occurrence of second financial crisis or are we just in denial?