The U.S. inflation rate rises to 2.7% in June—the highest in four months. One key driver: food prices.
And among them, beef prices stands out.
In the past, egg prices were at historic highs but now beef might be replacing eggs for most part of the inflation chatter.
Even earlier last year, the average beef prices were rising as a result of a combination of factors including prolonged drought, elevated interest rates on loans, high grain costs to name a few.
The rising operating costs forced ranchers to maintain small herd, with many going out of business. As a result, the U.S. cattle inventory dropped to its lowest level since 1951.
But with severe shortage of cattle in the U.S., American demand for Brazilian and Australian beef is rising sharply, keeping upward pressure on prices.
With growing challenges, U.S. ranchers now face a fresh hurdle in 2025: tariffs on Brazil.
Brazil currently faces additional 50% tariff rates on top of the ‘All-other Countries Quota’ tariff, which could lower the pace of imports in the second half of 2025.
Also one of America’s largest beef importer, Brazil filled its entire yearly quote for 2025 in just 17 days. Brazil, the world’s largest beef exporter, accounts for some 23% of U.S. beef imports.
The numbers
If you look at the data, beef trade lies under different categories depending on whether its frozen, processed, fresh, or ground.
From January to May 2025, the U.S. imported a combined volume of 214,438 metric tons of frozen beef and veal from Brazil, up 53% compared to the same period in 2024, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Global Agricultural Trade System.
In value about $1.2 billion of beef and veal was imported into the U.S. from Brazil alone from January to May this year, according to the data retrieved from U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) GATS marking a 106% increase year-over-year.
However, Australia remains the biggest beef exporter to the U.S. due to the tariff-free quota under the 2005 US-Australia Free Trade Agreement.
Bottom line
Tariff effects are starting to show up in inflation rates (though it’s not the appropriate metric for measuring direct tariff impacts). So beef might not be the only product getting impacted.
Edited by David Fink